SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2024 Nov 22 1238 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41122
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Nov 2024, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Nov 2024  10CM FLUX: 169 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Nov 2024  10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Nov 2024  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 009

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the
past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C9.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2676) peaking
on November 22 at 03:44 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 298
(NOAA Active Regions 3901).  Two new regions emerged in the western
hemisphere, SIDC Sunspot Group 320 and 321 (NOAA Active Region 3903 and
3904, respectively). A large new region also rotated over the south-east
solar limb and was numbered as SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA Active Region
3905), which also produced C-class flaring. The remaining regions were
quiet.  The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next
24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance
for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A partial Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
predominantly directed to the south-east was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data
from around 12:48 UTC November 21. This originated from a filament
eruption, visible in SDO AIA 304 over the east limb from 11:36 UTC November
21. This CME is therefore not expected to be Earth directed. A second halo
CME, predominantly directed to the north-west, was detected in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from around 18:12 UTC November 21. This CME was
associated with a region beyond the west limb and is therefore not expected
to be Earth directed. However, an associated proton event was detected at
Earth.


Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions predominantly
reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between 3 and 10nT, with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The solar wind speed
ranged between 360 km/s and 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi
angle switched was mostly in the negative sector (directed towards the
Sun). The solar wind speed may become slightly elevated over the next 24
hours due to the possible high-speed stream influence, associated with SIDC
Coronal Hole 79, which began to cross the central meridian on November 18.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet
to unsettled. Generally quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours, with possible isolated active conditions
due to any high-speed stream influence.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux increased
above the 10 pfu from 19:25 UTC November 21 and reached a maximum value of
125 pfu at 03:30 UTC November 22. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton is
currently around 38 pfu and is expected to remain elevated for the next
day, with further increases possible in response to further high energy
flaring activity from the same region beyond the west limb.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by
GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below
this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at
nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.





Zdroj : SIDC Ursigram





Předpověď sluneční aktivity pro období : November 22 - November 28, 2024

Zdroj : http://www.asu.cas.cz/~sunwatch




Poslední fotografie ze SOHO / SDO:



Různé barvy snímků prozrazují odlišné vlnové délky - každá
vlnová délka je vyzařována plynem o určité teplotě: oranžová: 80 000 °C,
modrá: 1 000 000 °C, zelená: 1 500 000 °C, hnědá: 2 500 000 °C.

  

    




      He II/Si XI 30,4 nm

      80 000 °C

      EIT 304

    
    





      Fe IX/X 17,1 nm

      1 000 000 °C

      EIT 171

    
    





      Fe XII 19,5 nm

      1 500 000 °C

      EIT 195

    
    





      Fe XV 28,4 nm

      2 500 000 °C

      EIT 284

    
  
  

    




SDO/HMI Continuum


    





SDO/HMI Magnetogram


    





LASCO C2


    




LASCO C3

  










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