SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2025 Mar 13 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50313
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Mar 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 167 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Mar 2025  10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the
past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a
C6.8 flare (SIDC Flare 3823) peaking on March 13 at 07:52 UTC, which was
produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 423 (NOAA Active Region 4012). A total of 11
numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours.
SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019) and SIDC Sunspot Group 398
(NOAA Active Region 4021)  have the most complex magnetic configuration
(Beta_Delta). SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region 4028) has turned
on disk on the east limb and was responsible for most of the C-class
flaring over the past 24h. Solar flaring activity is expected to be
moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small
chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected in the available coronagraph images.


Solar wind: In the last 24 hours, Earth was under the influence of the high
speed stream (HSS) from the negative polarity coronal hole which crossed
the central meridian on March 10. The solar wind speed increased to 560
km/s.  The interplanetary magnetic field reached 12 nT and now gradually
reduced to 7 nT. The North-South component (Bz) reached minimum value of -9
nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow
solar wind.


Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were at minor storm levels globally
(Kp 5) and active conditions locally (K Bel 4) since mid of March 12 due to
a high-speed stream arrival. Unsettled to active conditions are expected in
the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the
10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.


Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the
1000 pfu threshold on March 12, but are currently below the threshold. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be high and occasionally
above the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming
days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to
remain so in the next days.





Zdroj : SIDC Ursigram





Předpověď sluneční aktivity pro období : March 14 - March 20, 2025

Zdroj : http://www.asu.cas.cz/~sunwatch




Poslední fotografie ze SOHO / SDO:



Různé barvy snímků prozrazují odlišné vlnové délky - každá
vlnová délka je vyzařována plynem o určité teplotě: oranžová: 80 000 °C,
modrá: 1 000 000 °C, zelená: 1 500 000 °C, hnědá: 2 500 000 °C.

  

    




      He II/Si XI 30,4 nm

      80 000 °C

      EIT 304

    
    





      Fe IX/X 17,1 nm

      1 000 000 °C

      EIT 171

    
    





      Fe XII 19,5 nm

      1 500 000 °C

      EIT 195

    
    





      Fe XV 28,4 nm

      2 500 000 °C

      EIT 284

    
  
  

    




SDO/HMI Continuum


    





SDO/HMI Magnetogram


    





LASCO C2


    




LASCO C3

  










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