SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2026 May 13 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60513
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 May 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 May 2026  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 027
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2026  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2026  10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 019

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the
past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C2.3
flare (SIDC Flare 7677), peaking at 06:40 UTC on May 13, which was
associated with the returning SIDC Sunspot Group 825 (NOAA Active Region
4436, magnetic type beta). There are currently five numbered active regions
on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4432) is the
most complex group with magnetic type beta-gamma and is currently rotating
across the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 867 (magnetic type beta) has
emerged in the northwest quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected
to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and
M-class flares likely.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Coronal holes: A large, negative polarity, transequatorial coronal hole
(returning SIDC Coronal Hole 147) has started to cross the central
meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth
starting late on May 15.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE)
initially reflected slow solar wind conditions, with an enhancement
observed during the last hours of the period. Speed values ranged between
320 km/s and the current value of approximately 440 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field values increased from 5 nT up to 13 nT. The
Bz component varied between -7 nT and 13 nT. The interplanetary magnetic
field angle was mostly in the positive sector until around 11:00 UTC on May
13, when it switched to the negative sector. The observed enhancement is
most likely associated with the possible glancing blow arrival of the
Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 650) observed at 13:48 UTC on May 10. The
association will be further assessed as more data become available. Further
enhancements in the solar wind parameters may be possible over the next 24
hours.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet levels
(NOAA Kp 1 to 2). Locally, geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet,
reaching unsettled levels during the last hour of the period (K BEL 1 to
3). Active to minor storm conditions may be possible over the next 24
hours, due to the observed solar wind enhancement, most likely associated
with the possible glancing blow arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC
CME 650) observed at 13:48 UTC on May 10.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10
pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below
the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by
GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu
threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently
at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.





Zdroj : SIDC Ursigram





Předpověď sluneční aktivity pro období : May 08 - May 14, 2026

Zdroj : http://www.asu.cas.cz/~sunwatch




Poslední fotografie ze SOHO / SDO:



Různé barvy snímků prozrazují odlišné vlnové délky - každá
vlnová délka je vyzařována plynem o určité teplotě: oranžová: 80 000 °C,
modrá: 1 000 000 °C, zelená: 1 500 000 °C, hnědá: 2 500 000 °C.

  

    




      He II/Si XI 30,4 nm

      80 000 °C

      EIT 304

    
    





      Fe IX/X 17,1 nm

      1 000 000 °C

      EIT 171

    
    





      Fe XII 19,5 nm

      1 500 000 °C

      EIT 195

    
    





      Fe XV 28,4 nm

      2 500 000 °C

      EIT 284

    
  
  

    




SDO/HMI Continuum


    





SDO/HMI Magnetogram


    





LASCO C2


    




LASCO C3

  










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