Aktuální sluneční data:
25.září 2022 - 12:46 UT(GMT)
Mezinárodní číslo slunečních skvrn :
Sluneční záblesky : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Geomagnetická situace : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Sluneční protony : Quiet
Komentář : Solar flaring activity was low. Several C-class flares were
released both by Catania group 47 (NOAA active region 3107) and by Catania
group 48 (NOAA active region 3110). The strongest class reached was C7.2
and both of the regions released a flare of this class. The one from
Catania group 47 (NOAA active region 3107) peaked at 16:07UTC. The one from
Catania group 48 (NOAA active region 3110) peaked at 17:19UTC.
Both these regions remain the main actors with the other regions on disc
stable or simplifying. Catania group 48 (NOAA active region 3110) grew but
seemed to consolidate and stabilize towards the end of the period. Catania
group 47 (NOAA active region 3107) remains the most complex with mixed
polarity field in the intermediate areas.
C level flaring is expected with a very significant chance for another M
flare particularly from Catania group 47 (NOAA active region 3107).
A more detailed model run for the West-bound CME of September 23 shows a
possible glancing blow in the late hours of September 27.
The CME associated with the M1 flare from Catania group 48 (NOAA active
region 3110) occurring close to the Eastern limb on September 23 has been
analyzed more closely. It is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from around
18:12UTC with a projected speed of 1500km/s. Although directed well off the
Sun-Earth line, given the speed of the CME a possible shock arrival can not
be excluded and model runs indicate it could occur late tomorrow or in the
early hours of September 27.
Some more CMEs have occurred in coronagrpah images since, but all are
judged to be too narrow are off the Sun-Earth line to reach Earth. On
September 24 we have first a South-West bound CME at 7:12UTC which is
originating from the South-West limb. In the afternoon there was an East
bound CME associated to the C7.2 flare from Catania group 48 (NOAA active
region 3110) followed by a rather narrow CME to the South-East from a
filament eruption in the South-Eastern quadrant. None of these are expected
to influence Earth.
In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained just very
slightly enhanced but well below the minor storm warning threshold. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced,
but below the radiation storm thresholds over the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The
24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours but with
an increasing trend. The 24h electron fluence is expected to remain normal
in the next 24 hours.
The low latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole that
transited the central meridian in the past days is expected to influence
solar wind starting from around September 27.
Solar wind parameters reflected slightly perturbed solar wind conditions.
Solar wind speed varied between 400-500 km/s but finally decreases to
currently 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field had a magnitude of
between 4-6.5nT. IT is now believed that the just mildly enhanced
velocities of the recent days must be associated to the coronal hole that
passed central meridian on September 19, with a amuch weaker influence than
Essentially slow Solar wind conditions are expected initially with later
some perturbations coming up. Through September 27 possible glancing blows
from the September 23 CMEs may blend into the expected high speed stream
from the extension of the southern polar coronal hole.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2-3) with locally
an isolated active period (local K Dourbes 0-4).
Initially quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with later, early
September 27, active periods likely with the expected perturbed solar wind
Předpověď sluneční aktivity pro období : September 23 - September 29, 2022
Poslední fotografie ze SOHO / SDO:
Různé barvy snímků prozrazují odlišné vlnové délky - každá
vlnová délka je vyzařována plynem o určité teplotě: oranžová: 80 000 °C,
modrá: 1 000 000 °C, zelená: 1 500 000 °C, hnědá: 2 500 000 °C.
He II/Si XI 30,4 nm
80 000 °C
Fe IX/X 17,1 nm
1 000 000 °C
Fe XII 19,5 nm
1 500 000 °C
Fe XV 28,4 nm
2 500 000 °C